Here’s what I ran on Jan 2, 2021:
AEA5k
## # A tibble: 5 x 2
## km pace
## <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 1 6.4
## 2 2 7.15
## 3 3 6.67
## 4 4 NA
## 5 5 NA
though the final distance was 3.6 km.
run
Mitigating circumstances were
Based on my actual run of 3.6 km, my humble data-driven submission to the AEA 5k challenge is based on:
ols
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = pace ~ km, data = AEA5k)
##
## Coefficients:
## (Intercept) km
## 6.4722 0.1333
theory %>% summarize(eta=sum(use),eta.lower=sum(lower),eta.upper=sum(upper)) -> submission
print(submission)
## # A tibble: 1 x 3
## eta eta.lower eta.upper
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 34.4 30.7 38.0
and I thus humbly submit a time of 34.3611111 minutes for 5 km (all units decimal; though honestly that upper bound of 38.0382064 looks really reasonable).
All data are made available in this repository. All code is in the R Markdown document.
Re-running the code might take a few seconds on a reasonably modern system. Re-running the data collection might take a reasonably modern person anywhere from 20 to 60 minutes. Data collection protocol may require shoes, appropriate clothing, and is unlikely to succeed in the presence of substantial flooding.
Sys.info()
## sysname release version nodename machine
## "Windows" "10 x64" "build 19042" "LARS-X1-2018" "x86-64"
## login user effective_user
## "lars" "lars" "lars"
sessionInfo()
## R version 4.0.2 (2020-06-22)
## Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)
## Running under: Windows 10 x64 (build 19042)
##
## Matrix products: default
##
## locale:
## [1] LC_COLLATE=English_United States.1252
## [2] LC_CTYPE=English_United States.1252
## [3] LC_MONETARY=English_United States.1252
## [4] LC_NUMERIC=C
## [5] LC_TIME=English_United States.1252
##
## attached base packages:
## [1] stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods base
##
## other attached packages:
## [1] dplyr_1.0.2 readxl_1.3.1
##
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
## [1] Rcpp_1.0.5 knitr_1.30 magrittr_2.0.1 tidyselect_1.1.0
## [5] R6_2.5.0 rlang_0.4.9 fansi_0.4.1 stringr_1.4.0
## [9] tools_4.0.2 xfun_0.19 utf8_1.1.4 cli_2.2.0
## [13] htmltools_0.5.0 ellipsis_0.3.1 assertthat_0.2.1 yaml_2.2.1
## [17] digest_0.6.27 tibble_3.0.4 lifecycle_0.2.0 crayon_1.3.4
## [21] purrr_0.3.4 vctrs_0.3.5 glue_1.4.2 evaluate_0.14
## [25] rmarkdown_2.5 stringi_1.5.3 compiler_4.0.2 pillar_1.4.7
## [29] cellranger_1.1.0 generics_0.1.0 pkgconfig_2.0.3